# PREDICTIVE BUSINESS ANALYTICS PDF

Chapter 1 Why Analytics Will Be the Next Competitive Edge 3. Analytics: Just a Skill, or a Profession? 4. Business Intelligence versus Analytics versus Decisions . Predictive analytics encompasses a variety of statistical techniques from [1][2][3 ] In business, predictive models exploit patterns found in historical and. Predictive analytics provides the methodology in tapping . Along with traditional business data, firms are realizing value from social media.

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Healthcare presents the perfect storm for predictive analytics. . important business cases allows a team to discover what data speaks to these .. Reports/ MedicareFeeforSvcPartsAB/downloads/DRGdescpdf for a list of the DRG codes. Able to explain what is predictive analytics and where it is used . Source: Halper, F. (): Predictive Analytics for Business Advantage. participation in the field of predictive analytics. Predictive. Analysis. Center of. Excellence . Story teller – drive business value not just data insights. • Creativity .

From until recently, Gary was in business development with SAS, a leading provider of enterprise performance management and business analytics and intelligence software.

## Predictive Analytics

Contact him at gcokins garycokins. Request permission to reuse content from this site. Undetected country. NO YES. Predictive Business Analytics: Selected type: Added to Your Shopping Cart. Evaluation Copy Request an Evaluation Copy. Survival or duration analysis[edit] Survival analysis is another name for time to event analysis.

These techniques were primarily developed in the medical and biological sciences, but they are also widely used in the social sciences like economics, as well as in engineering reliability and failure time analysis. Censoring and non-normality, which are characteristic of survival data, generate difficulty when trying to analyze the data using conventional statistical models such as multiple linear regression. Hence the normality assumption of regression models is violated.

The assumption is that if the data were not censored it would be representative of the population of interest. In survival analysis, censored observations arise whenever the dependent variable of interest represents the time to a terminal event, and the duration of the study is limited in time.

An important concept in survival analysis is the hazard rate, defined as the probability that the event will occur at time t conditional on surviving until time t.

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Another concept related to the hazard rate is the survival function which can be defined as the probability of surviving to time t. Most models try to model the hazard rate by choosing the underlying distribution depending on the shape of the hazard function.

A distribution whose hazard function slopes upward is said to have positive duration dependence, a decreasing hazard shows negative duration dependence whereas constant hazard is a process with no memory usually characterized by the exponential distribution. Some of the distributional choices in survival models are: F, gamma, Weibull, log normal, inverse normal, exponential etc. All these distributions are for a non-negative random variable.

Duration models can be parametric, non-parametric or semi-parametric.

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Some of the models commonly used are Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard model non parametric. Decision tree learning Globally-optimal classification tree analysis GO-CTA also called hierarchical optimal discriminant analysis is a generalization of optimal discriminant analysis that may be used to identify the statistical model that has maximum accuracy for predicting the value of a categorical dependent variable for a dataset consisting of categorical and continuous variables.

The output of HODA is a non-orthogonal tree that combines categorical variables and cut points for continuous variables that yields maximum predictive accuracy, an assessment of the exact Type I error rate, and an evaluation of potential cross-generalizability of the statistical model. Hierarchical optimal discriminant analysis may be thought of as a generalization of Fisher's linear discriminant analysis. Optimal discriminant analysis is an alternative to ANOVA analysis of variance and regression analysis, which attempt to express one dependent variable as a linear combination of other features or measurements.

However, ANOVA and regression analysis give a dependent variable that is a numerical variable, while hierarchical optimal discriminant analysis gives a dependent variable that is a class variable. Classification and regression trees CART are a non-parametric decision tree learning technique that produces either classification or regression trees, depending on whether the dependent variable is categorical or numeric, respectively.

Decision trees are formed by a collection of rules based on variables in the modeling data set: Rules based on variables' values are selected to get the best split to differentiate observations based on the dependent variable Once a rule is selected and splits a node into two, the same process is applied to each "child" node i.

Alternatively, the data are split as much as possible and then the tree is later pruned. Each branch of the tree ends in a terminal node. Each observation falls into one and exactly one terminal node, and each terminal node is uniquely defined by a set of rules.

A very popular method for predictive analytics is Leo Breiman's Random forests. Multivariate adaptive regression splines[edit] Multivariate adaptive regression splines MARS is a non-parametric technique that builds flexible models by fitting piecewise linear regressions.

An important concept associated with regression splines is that of a knot. Knot is where one local regression model gives way to another and thus is the point of intersection between two splines. In multivariate and adaptive regression splines, basis functions are the tool used for generalizing the search for knots. Basis functions are a set of functions used to represent the information contained in one or more variables.

Multivariate and Adaptive Regression Splines model almost always creates the basis functions in pairs. Multivariate and adaptive regression spline approach deliberately overfits the model and then prunes to get to the optimal model. The algorithm is computationally very intensive and in practice we are required to specify an upper limit on the number of basis functions. Machine learning techniques[edit] Machine learning, a branch of artificial intelligence, was originally employed to develop techniques to enable computers to learn.

Today, since it includes a number of advanced statistical methods for regression and classification, it finds application in a wide variety of fields including medical diagnostics, credit card fraud detection, face and speech recognition and analysis of the stock market.

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In certain applications it is sufficient to directly predict the dependent variable without focusing on the underlying relationships between variables. In other cases, the underlying relationships can be very complex and the mathematical form of the dependencies unknown. For such cases, machine learning techniques emulate human cognition and learn from training examples to predict future events. A brief discussion of some of these methods used commonly for predictive analytics is provided below.

A detailed study of machine learning can be found in Mitchell Neural networks[edit] Neural networks are nonlinear sophisticated modeling techniques that are able to model complex functions.

Neural networks are used when the exact nature of the relationship between inputs and output is not known. A key feature of neural networks is that they learn the relationship between inputs and output through training. There are three types of training in neural networks used by different networks, supervised and unsupervised training, reinforcement learning, with supervised being the most common one.

Some examples of neural network training techniques are backpropagation, quick propagation, conjugate gradient descent, projection operator, Delta-Bar-Delta etc. Some unsupervised network architectures are multilayer perceptrons, Kohonen networks, Hopfield networks, etc.

Multilayer perceptron MLP [edit] The multilayer perceptron MLP consists of an input and an output layer with one or more hidden layers of nonlinearly-activating nodes or sigmoid nodes. This is determined by the weight vector and it is necessary to adjust the weights of the network. The backpropagation employs gradient fall to minimize the squared error between the network output values and desired values for those outputs.

The weights adjusted by an iterative process of repetitive present of attributes. Small changes in the weight to get the desired values are done by the process called training the net and is done by the training set learning rule.

## Predictive Business Analytics: Forward Looking Capabilities to Improve Business Performance

Radial basis functions[edit] A radial basis function RBF is a function which has built into it a distance criterion with respect to a center. Such functions can be used very efficiently for interpolation and for smoothing of data. Radial basis functions have been applied in the area of neural networks where they are used as a replacement for the sigmoidal transfer function.

Such networks have 3 layers, the input layer, the hidden layer with the RBF non-linearity and a linear output layer. The most popular choice for the non-linearity is the Gaussian. RBF networks have the advantage of not being locked into local minima as do the feed-forward networks such as the multilayer perceptron.

Support vector machines[edit] support vector machines SVM are used to detect and exploit complex patterns in data by clustering, classifying and ranking the data. They are learning machines that are used to perform binary classifications and regression estimations. They commonly use kernel based methods to apply linear classification techniques to non-linear classification problems.

There are a number of types of SVM such as linear, polynomial, sigmoid etc. It is best employed when faced with the problem of 'curse of dimensionality' i. The method does not impose a priori any assumptions about the distribution from which the modeling sample is drawn. It involves a training set with both positive and negative values.

The sign of that point will determine the classification of the sample. In the k-nearest neighbour classifier, the k nearest points are considered and the sign of the majority is used to classify the sample. The performance of the kNN algorithm is influenced by three main factors: It can be proved that, unlike other methods, this method is universally asymptotically convergent, i. See Devroy et al. Geospatial predictive modeling[edit] Conceptually, geospatial predictive modeling is rooted in the principle that the occurrences of events being modeled are limited in distribution.

Occurrences of events are neither uniform nor random in distribution—there are spatial environment factors infrastructure, sociocultural, topographic, etc. Geospatial predictive modeling attempts to describe those constraints and influences by spatially correlating occurrences of historical geospatial locations with environmental factors that represent those constraints and influences. Geospatial predictive modeling is a process for analyzing events through a geographic filter in order to make statements of likelihood for event occurrence or emergence.

Tools[edit] Historically, using predictive analytics tools—as well as understanding the results they delivered— required advanced skills. However, modern predictive analytics tools are no longer restricted to IT specialists[citation needed]. As more organizations adopt predictive analytics into decision-making processes and integrate it into their operations, they are creating a shift in the market toward business users as the primary consumers of the information. Business users want tools they can use on their own.

These range from those that need very little user sophistication to those that are designed for the expert practitioner. The difference between these tools is often in the level of customization and heavy data lifting allowed. Notable open source predictive analytic tools include: Such an XML-based language provides a way for the different tools to define predictive models and to share these between PMML compliant applications.

PMML 4. Criticism[edit] There are plenty of skeptics when it comes to computers and algorithms abilities to predict the future, including Gary King, a professor from Harvard University and the director of the Institute for Quantitative Social Science. Trying to understand what people will do next assumes that all the influential variables can be known and measured accurately. Everything from the weather to their relationship with their mother can change the way people think and act.

All of those variables are unpredictable.

## Putting analytics to work

How they will impact a person is even less predictable. If put in the exact same situation tomorrow, they may make a completely different decision.

This means that a statistical prediction is only valid in sterile laboratory conditions, which suddenly isn't as useful as it seemed before. Please help to improve this article by introducing more precise citations. A personality-based product recommender framework". Electronic Markets: The International Journal on Networked Business.

Understanding the Vital Signs of Your Business 1st ed. Bellevue, WA: Ambient Light Publishing. ISBN Can you pronounce health care predictive analytics? Retrieved March 3, The Huffington Post. The print version of this textbook is ISBN: , It turned out to be very successful.

Winston This is very good and becomes the main topic to read, the readers are very takjup and always take inspiration from the contents of the book Marketing Analytics - Data-Driven Techniques With Microsoft Excel 1St Edition, essay by Wayne L. NET is a programmer's complete guide to Visual Basic. Introduction to the World of Forensic Accounting 2.

It's easier to figure out tough problems faster using Chegg Study. Schniederjans Christopher M. The study of accounting From the outside, accounting can appear to be a purely practical subject.

You can use this test bank to study for your quizzes and exams to help you get a better grade. The Data and Analytics Playbook: Proven Methods for Governed Data and Analytic Quality explores the way in which data continues to dominate budgets, along with the varying efforts made across a variety of business enablement projects, including applications, web and mobile computing, big data analytics, and traditional data integration.

It is also considered to be the bible of value investing. Screening and Staging Engagements 4. Included are: 1. A discussion of the relationship between accounting data and programmatic financial data 3. This allows analysts to frame their analytics to predict how their objects of interest, such as Description Solution Manual Essentials of Business Analytics 1st Edition Camm.

Starting with a sample application and a high- classes and present the same in the forms of tables so that analysis is convenient. Fern has published numerous articles on data analysis and advanced ana-lytics.

A new appendix provides a brief discussion of scene for understanding basic concepts and available tools for analysing data and As with the first edition of Basic epidemiology , examples are drawn from different countries to illustrate various epidemiological concepts.

Project Management Analytics A Data Driven Approach to Making Rational and Effective Project Decisions 1st Edition Singh Solutions Manual, test banks, solutions manual, textbooks, nursing, sample free download, pdf download, answers experience in data analysis, business analysis, and strategy development. This item has complete Chapters Solutions Chapter 1- As chief analyst to the productions and operations manager, you need to review all of the Excel worksheets and prepare a report summarizing the sources of the data, the types of data measures used, and the characteristics of the metrics used.

Specifically, the focus will not be on auditing and accounting standards and their current required procedures, but rather on what the profession can progressively achieve with data analytics.

Yet analytics actually has very little to do with technology. Categorical Data Analysis, New York:. Presentation of data: after classification and tabulation the data are presented in the form of averages, diagrams or graphs etc.

Data Mining for Business Analytics: Concepts, Techniques, and Applications in R presents an applied approach to data mining concepts and methods, using R software for illustration. Winston, Christopher James PDF Customer relationship management: concepts and tools is the first edition of a book that is now in its third edition.

Undergraduate Instrumental Analysis 7th Edition Pdf. However, the examples and the benchmark data have been updated and classes and present the same in the forms of tables so that analysis is convenient. Audience This tutorial has been designed to help beginners pursuing education in financial accounting or business management.

This article aims at introducing basic data analysis concepts to enable accounting professionals to understand how to navigate within this new environment.

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Rather than upload the full first edition, which is now out-dated, I 1. Blyth and E. Anderson Second Edition T. Gathering Evidence — Interviews and Observations 5.Lugosi The study of accounting From the outside, accounting can appear to be a purely practical subject. Ambient Light Publishing. Big Data is the core of most predictive analytic services offered by IT organizations. Apart from identifying prospects, predictive analytics can also help to identify the most effective combination of product versions, marketing material, communication channels and timing that should be used to target a given consumer.

Predictive models[edit] Predictive models are models of the relation between the specific performance of a unit in a sample and one or more known attributes or features of the unit. These are examples of approaches that can extend from project to market, and from near to long term.

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